Donald Trump and Joe Biden are running neck-and-neck in Florida and Ohio after polls closed in those critical battleground states.
Trump needs Florida if he wants a second term in the White House – it’s unclear how he gets to 270 electoral votes without it.
The two contenders are tied in the state at 49% each.
If Biden wins Ohio, it’s a sign he could take back the so-called ‘blue wall’ – a series of Midwest states that had voted reliably Democrat for more than 20 years until Trump carried them in the 2016 election. Additionally, Ohio has voted with the Electoral College winner in the past 14 presidential elections.
Besides Ohio, the ‘blue wall’ includes Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
If Biden hold the swing states Hillary Clinton won in 2016 (Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Minnesota) and then put back together the ‘blue wall,’ he takes the White House.
Trump stunned Democrats when he broke through their wall four years ago. Those victories handed him the Oval Office.
Both candidates focused on those Midwest states in the closing day of the campaign, holding multiple rallies and events there.
Polls have closed in Georgia and in most of Florida – two major battleground states – as an election year unlike any other draws to a close.
Five states – Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia – had their polls close at 7pm ET along with most of Florida, where the panhandle portion of the state closes at 8pm.
Donald Trump picked up Kentucky, Indiana and West Virginia, as he was expected to do, and Joe Biden took Vermont, also expected, and Virginia.
Those were the first states called in the 2020 presidential election, which saw traditional campaigning upended by the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump won eight electoral votes from Kentucky, five from West Virginia and 11 from Indiana, while Biden took three for Vermont.
It is expected to be a long night and a final result may not be known for a few days given the large number of Americans that voted mail-in due to the coronavirus.
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Donald Trump picked up Kentucky, West Virginia and Indiana, as he was expected to do, as first polls close. Trump won eight electoral votes from Kentucky, five from West Virginia and 11 from Indiana
Joe Biden took Vermont, which was expected, and claimed three electoral college votes. He also took Virginia, with 13 electoral college votes
Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin are among the states to watch.
The winner of some of those states may not be known for days. The Supreme Court extended deadlines in North Carolina and Pennsylvania for officials there to accept mail-in ballots, a blow to Republicans.
President Trump, in particular, has railed against the Pennsylvania decision and has threatened legal action in the state against any disputed ballots.
It’s unclear how Trump will win a second term with Florida and Pennsylvania.
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
‘We believe this to be a tight race,’ Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said Tuesday evening on a call with reporters. ‘We believe every votes going to matter. It’s going to come down to turnout. We think we’re better positioned in that sort of in that type of campaign.’
There have been reports of long lines at polls across the country. As long as voters are in line by the time polls close, they are allowed to vote.
Biden refused to say how the night will go, telling reporters Tuesday outside a Delaware community center that he’s ‘superstitious’ about offering predictions but remains ‘hopeful.’
‘The things that are happening bode well for the base that has been supporting me — but we´ll see,’ he said.
But he noted things were ‘so uncertain’ because of the large number of states in play.
Biden and Trump were switching back and forth between having the lead in Florida, though early totals out of Miami-Dade seemed to spell trouble for Biden, as Trump has heavily courted the Latino population, particularly in Miami’s Cuban communities.
He held a midnight rally in the Miami area on Sunday, which attracted an estimated 12,000 supporters.
CNN was reporting that Biden was underperforming Clinton’s totals in Miami-Dade by more than 5%.
Palm Beach County and Broward County, located north of Miami, looked like more fertile ground for Biden. Hillsborough County and Pinellas County, where Tampa and St. Petersburg are located, respectively, had Biden overperforming how Clinton did in 2016.
In Florida, a machine recount is triggered when the margin between the candidates is less than or equal to .5% of the total votes.
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U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden makes his way through the crowd outside of his childhood home on Election Day with his grandchildren in Scranton, Pennsylvania, U.S.
Biden started election day Tuesday by attending morning mass and visiting his son Beau’s grave in Delaware (pictured)
President Donald Trump sent mixed-messaging on when he feels the winner of the election will be known as he told a room full of his staffers at his Arlington, Virginia campaign headquarters: ‘Losing is never easy. Not for me, it’s not’
Both Biden and Donald Trump have been eyeing Pennsylvania as one of the key swing states in the White House race.
Pennsylvania accounts for a significant 20 electoral votes meaning both Republicans and Democrats – as well as pollsters – believe the outcome of the state could dictate the entire race.
Concerns are mounting that Trump will declare victory in the state long before votes are counted or that he will attempt to stop mail-in votes being counted after election day.
Democrats are thought to be more likely to vote by mail-in voting given Trump’s constant rhetoric that the process is ‘rigged’.
Trump won the state by less than a point over Hillary Clinton back in 2016 however the latest polls show Biden is ahead by around 5 points.
Biden has visited the state more times than any other battleground state during his campaign trail and Trump has also focused heavily on drumming up support in the state.
Nearly 100 million Americans nationwide have voted early, and now it falls to election day voters to finish the job.
Biden entered election day with multiple paths to victory while Trump, playing catch-up in a number of battleground states, had a narrower but still feasible road to clinch 270 electoral college votes.
Control of the Senate is at stake, too: Democrats needed to net three seats if Biden captures the White House to gain control of all of Washington for the first time in a decade.
If Biden loses to Trump, the Democrats can still take control of the Senate if they take four Republican seats.
Meanwhile, the House is expected to remain under Democratic control.
Mel Case holds a Trump flag with other supporters on election night IN Lakewood’s San Jose Boulevard in Jacksonville, Florida
A poll worker helps a voter put as she drops off her mail-in ballot at an official Miami-Dade County drive-thru ballot drop box at the Miami-Dade County Election Department in Miami, Florida
Elections workers open ballots at the Palm Beach County Elections Office during the 2020 U.S. presidential election in West Palm Beach, Florida
Trump admitted Tuesday that he doesn’t take losing well as he rattled off a confusing message on when he expects the election winner to be known, claiming he wants to know by Election Night, but doubling down on preparing to launch a legal battle in several states over the results.
Biden left a poignant message on the wall of the living room of his childhood home reading: ‘From this house to the White House with the grace of God’
‘I’m not thinking about a concession speech or acceptance speech yet. Hopefully we’ll be doing only one of those two,’ Trump told reporters as he visited his campaign headquarters in Arlington, Virginia Tuesday afternoon as voters lined up all over the country to cast their ballots.
‘And you know, winning is easy,’ the president continued. ‘Losing is never easy. Not for me, it’s not.’
The president was joined by White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany, his Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and a very dressed-down Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and senior adviser, for the trip.
Reports emerged over the weekend that Trump is preparing to declare victory tonight before a winner is officially called – but the president denied this, claiming the reports were ‘false.’
Just hours before polls closed, Joe Biden addressed a large crowd of supporters in Philadelphia.
This marked the second stop on a tour of two cities in Pennsylvania Tuesday as the Democrat makes a final play for the battleground state where pollsters and both political parties feel the White House race could be won or lost.
On his first stop he visited his childhood home in Scranton Tuesday morning where he left a poignant message on the wall of the living room.
The Democratic candidate wrote the message ‘from this house to the White House with the grace of God’ alongside his signature and the date of the 59th US presidential election.
Biden was then mobbed by a huge crowd of supporters who had gathered outside in a show of support – a far cry from the smaller turnouts at the socially distanced rallies he has held throughout the campaign season.
Mike Pence casts his ballot next to Second Lady Karen Pence during the US presidential election at the Marion County Clerk’s Office in Indianapolis, Indiana
Voters wait in line to vote early as US Vice President Mike Pence and Second Lady Karen Pence vote in person in the US presidential election at the Marion County Clerk’s Office in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, 23 October
Trump supporters gather in the Regal Greenwood & RPX movie theater parking lot to leave for a Trump parade caravan around Interstate 465 two days before the 2020 election
A protester dressed as a Handmaids Tale character outside the Marion County Clerk’s Office where US Vice President Mike Pence and Second Lady Karen Pence vote in the US presidential election on October 23
Biden made an embarrassing gaffe during his final pit stop as he introduced his granddaughter Finnegan as his late son Beau Biden, then called her by her cousin Natalie’s name, before finally correctly introducing Natalie as Beau’s daughter to a crowd of supporters in Philadelphia.
‘This is my son, Beau Biden who a lot of you helped elect to the Senate in Delaware,’ he said as he put his arm around Finnegan’s shoulder.
He then continued with the slip-up by calling her Natalie and saying she is Beau’s daughter. Natalie, 16, is Beau’s daughter while Finnegan, 20, is actually the daughter of Biden’s other son Hunter.
‘This is my granddaughter, Natalie,’ Biden continued, before saying: ‘No wait, we got the wrong one.’
He then finally put his arm around Natalie’s shoulder, who was standing close by, and said correctly: ‘This is Natalie, this is Beau’s daughter.’
Biden’s trip to Scranton came after he started election day by attending morning mass and visiting Beau’s grave at St. Joseph On the Brandywine Catholic Church in Wilmington, Delaware, with his wife Jill and teenage granddaughters Finnegan and Natalie.
The family attended a short mass at their local church before paying a visit to the grave of Biden’s late son Beau, an Iraq War veteran and Delaware attorney general, who was laid to rest there following his death in 2015 from brain cancer.
Biden’s late first wife Neilia and baby daughter Naomi, who both died in a car crash in 1972, are also buried in the cemetery.
Biden and Finnegan locked arms and she put her arm around her grandfather at one point as they took a moment at his grave.
Finnegan’s message to the American people was plain for all to see as she sported a face mask with the word ‘vote’ emblazoned on it and what appeared to be $695 Stuart Weitzman 5050 ‘Vote’ black boots.
Trump told ‘Fox & Friends’ in a call-in interview Tuesday morning that he would declare victory ‘only when there’s victory.’
During his visit to the Washington D.C. suburb, which aired live on TV, Trump told a room of his staffers that the winner of the election should be decided Tuesday, again railing against mail-in ballots.
‘When do you think we’ll know a winner and should every vote be counted no matter how long it takes?’ a reporter gathered for the quick trip across the line from D.C. asked the president.
‘Well I think you will know possibly tonight depending on the extent of a victory. I think you could know tonight,’ Trump said.
‘I think the ruling on Pennsylvania was an unfortunate one by the Supreme Court because I think we should know what happens on the night,’ he said. ‘Let people put their ballots in earlier. But you have to have numbers, you can have these things delayed for many days and maybe weeks. You can’t do that. The whole world is waiting, this country is waiting – but the whole world is waiting.’
‘You have to have a date, and the date happens to be November 3,’ Trump reiterated. ‘And we should be entitled to know who won on November 3.’
‘They should put the ballot in earlier, there’s no reason why they can’t put the ballot in a few weeks earlier, one week earlier,’ he said. ‘I think it’s a very dangerous decision for a country in many ways dangerous, in many ways.’
Voting rights advocate Stacey Abrams speaks to supporters in the Kirkwood neighborhood near a DeKalb County voting precinct in Atlanta, Georgia on Election Day
Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., who is running for reelection, gestures as she makes her way to a private jet following a campaign event at Cobb County International Airport on Election Day
A poll worker sorts through voting material at Park Tavern in Atlanta
US President Donald Trump speaks as he visits his campaign headquarters in Arlington, Virginia
A voter presents her identification to polling station workers, beside a mannequin (L), at a polling location inside a fire station in Purcellville, Virginia
Betty Holland, 76, left, checks in to vote with election officer Dawn Erdman at the South Roanoke precinct at Crystal Spring Elementary School on Election Day in Roanoke, Virginia
The president is particularly upset with the swing state Pennsylvania, which could decide the outcome of the election.
The Supreme Court ruled in favor of Democrats in Pennsylvania who put in a new guideline due to an influx of mail-in ballots this year allowing the state election board to count those votes that were received up to three days after Election Day.
Trump says this is just a cover for Democrats to try and ‘steal’ the election by committing fraud.
The court also ruled that North Carolina, another swing state – a bit less consequential than the Keystone State – has up to eight days after the election to collect and count ballots as long as they were postmarked by Tuesday, November 3.
‘And a lot of shenanigans, a lot of bad things happen with ballots when you say, ‘Oh let’s devote days and days and all of a sudden, the ballot count changes.’
Trump has continuously flip-flopped on how the rest of the election should move forward, claiming he wants results known on Election Night, but promising to launch legal battles that could hold up the results.
The president predicted that he will win with an even larger Electoral College margin than in 2016, but said he will only declare that he has won ‘when there’s a victory.’
‘So my number last time was 306,’ Trump said when the ‘Fox & Friends’ panel asked him how many Electoral College votes he thinks he will earn.
‘I ended up with 306, that was good numbers – 223-306,’ he said in reference to the outcome against Hillary Clinton in 2016 – but the Democratic candidate actually earned 232 not 223.
‘And that was a big number,’ the president said. ‘And I think we will top it. I’ll leave it at that. I think we’ll top it.’
An election official speaks to a voter in the polling area in the Kentucky Center for African American Heritage on November 3, 2020 in Louisville, Kentucky
Voters cast their ballots at Stamping Ground Elementary in Stamping Ground, Kentucky
Voters wait in line to cast ballots outside Savannah Grove Baptist Church on November 3, 2020 in Effingham, South Carolina
Republican U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham reacts after marking his ballot electronically while voting in the general election on Election day at the Corinth-Shiloh Fire Dept. in Seneca, S.C
Voters wait in line to cast ballots at Savannah Grove Baptist Church in Effingham, South Carolina
Speaking hoarsely and 45 minutes later than scheduled after arriving back at the White House about 2am Tuesday, he voiced confidence in his ability to win.
According to Cook Political Report, Trump likely holds around 163 Electoral College votes as of now out of those states that are solid, likely and lean Republican. If he were to win all of the Electoral College votes of the states that are deemed a ‘toss up,’ his total would move up to 248.
This means he would need to earn 58 votes from solid, likely or lean Democrats states to even reach the threshold he won at in 2016.
When Trump was asked during the call-in interview when he will declare he has won the election, the president said ‘only when there’s victory.’
‘I mean, there’s no reason to play games. And I think we’ll have victory,’ he said during his interview where he could be heard but not seen.
‘I look at it as being a very solid chance of winning,’ he continued. ‘I don’t know what the chances are – I don’t know how they rate the chances but I think we have a very solid chance of winning.’
Ragi Patel, of Bellows Fall, Vt., casts her ballot as her 8-year-old son, Rushi, watches at the Bellows Falls polling site
Town Clerk Bobbi Brimblecombe, left, and assistant Winnie Valenza, right, process ballots on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, in Marshfield, Vermont. The town set up drive-thru voting with election officials and volunteers working in a heated tent
Reports emerged over the weekend with sources claiming the president has extensively discussed his plans for election night, which they say includes declaring victory early.
The Axios report on Sunday said Trump privately discussed in delta plans to walk up to the podium on Tuesday and declare he has won before official Electoral College results are revealed.
Trump denied the claims, stating Sunday: ‘No, no that was a false report,’ after he landed in North Carolina for his third rally of the day.
The president touted Tuesday his hectic campaign schedule in the days leading up to Election Day, which included 14 rallies in three days. And said the massive crowd sizes, which regularly include thousands of loyalists, are proof that he will win reelection.
‘There was no small event – every place, no matter where we went,’ Trump said of his rallies in the days leading up to the election.
‘I really did six yesterday,’ he claimed. ‘Because the one from the day before went until two in the morning. So then I got up and did one at 8:00 a.m.’
During his rally in Michigan Monday – the last before Election Day – Trump told the crowd: ‘I think we’re going to win everything. I think tomorrow is going to be one of the greatest wins in the history.’
‘This is not the crowd of somebody who is going to lose the state of Michigan,’ he said of the rust belt swing state. ‘This is not the crowd of a second place finisher.’
Get ready for the most nailbiting election in history: Your hour-by-hour guide to what to expect as America decides between Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Election night 2020 is unlike any American has seen before – with the presidency in the balance, and a record number of votes being counted in the teeth of the COVID pandemic.
Once polls close, the potential for chaos and crisis only begins. Here is DailyMail.com’s hour by hour guide to what to look out for as the U.S. passes its verdict on whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden should be in the White House, and who controls the Senate.
All times are EST.
First polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky.
All polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. The remainder of Indiana and Kentucky’s polls close. Florida polls except those in the Panhandle, which is in Central Time, close.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
EXIT POLLS: The first exit polls could come within minutes – but in a pandemic year, it is unclear how accurate they will be, with at least 93 million having voted early or by mail-in ballot. A huge turnout in Georgia could mean lines still outside polling places – a problem which has bedeviled it in recent elections.
All polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
NORTH CAROLINA – TRUMP WON IN 2016
First results will come within minutes – but they might be very small percentages of the total vote. North Carolina expects to have about 80 per cent of its votes counted on election night, starting with in-person early voting totals and mail-in ballots received by November 2. In the hours following polls closing, the state will report the in-person election day votes. The state does allow mail-in ballots to come in until November 12, so if it’s close, it may take several days to announce a final result.
Polls in North Carolina have flipped repeatedly between Trump and Biden. Trump won the state in 2016. An Emerson poll that ended surveying on October 30 shows the candidates tied. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Trump a tiny .5 per cent ahead. The Senate race is equally close fought, with Republican Thom Tillis hoping to hang on but Democrat Cal Cunningham up 2.2% in recent averages despite admitting to sexting a woman who was not his wife.
Could it be the end: South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham is in the fight of his political life with Jamie Harrison
SOUTH CAROLINA – REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Not in play for the presidential election – but a closely-fought Senate race could end Republican Lindsey Graham’s career and put Democrat Jaime Harrison in his place. Graham has been ahead in the three most recent polls by between three and six points but Harrison has out fundraised him by tens of millions of dollars and there has been too little polling to be sure that Graham is safely ahead. The state says it will start reporting from around
EXIT POLLS: Polls covering swing states of North Carolina and Ohio can be expected now. Biden’s campaign believes it can flip Ohio, despite it having gone to Trump by 8.3% in 2016. Its Republican governor predicts an ultra-narrow Trump win.
All polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Washington, D.C. Most polls close in Texas and Michigan. Central time polls close in Kansas, North and South Dakota. Remaining polls, those in Central Time in the Panhandle, close in Florida.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Must win: Barack Obama held a rally in Miami on Monday night in a push for Latino and black voters in the state
FLORIDA – TRUMP WON IN 2016
The first official results are expected within minutes of the Panhandle’s polls closing – and will give some indication how the perennial swing state has gone. Florida is used to processing large numbers of mail-in ballots. Early voting numbers will come out quickly as well. Those tallies will be followed by in-person voting. But officials believe they will still be counting into daylight on Wednesday.
Biden could have an early lead in that state and see it diminished as the night goes on. He has just a 1 point lead in the Real Clear Politics polling average in Trump’s adopted home state. By 8.30PM there should be a significant proportion of Florida’s results reported – so the state will at least indicate if one candidate or another can expect a blowout
OHIO – TRUMP WON IN 2016
First results could be announced as early as 8pm. Counties are required to announce the results of all absentee ballots received by Election Day and all early votes. They can then start counting ballots cast on election day and these will be updated through the night. The number of outstanding absentee ballots will be reported on election night, meaning number crunchers will be able to determine if there are enough outstanding ballots to sway the presidential race. Ballots marked postmarked November 2 can be counted until November 13 – so a clear result could take more than a week
Late-breaking polls in Ohio gave Trump a slim advantage in the state he won over Clinton in 2016, but that President Barack Obama and Vice President Biden carried in 2008 and 2012. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Trump 1.4 points ahead.
OTHERS: The Associated Press, Reuters and TV networks are likely to start a rapid-fire declaration of likely winners in a series of states soon after 8pm – but it is only likely to already be considered safely Republican or Democratic already.
Arkansas polls close
All polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Remaining polls close in Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
In trouble: Kelly Loeffler was appointed to the Senate to fill Republican Johnny Isakson’s seat but the best she can hope for in current polling is getting through to a January run-off
GEORGIA – TRUMP WON IN 2016, REPUBLICANS DEFENDING TWO SENATE SEATS
Georgia is expected to take about two hours to start reporting results. The state was allowed to start processing mail-in ballots on October 19. Additionally, after court challenges, mail-in ballots had to be returned by the time polls close – not just in the mail. The only exception is for Georgia voters living abroad.
Polls show an extremely tight race with Trump ahead by .2 per cent in the Real Clear Politics polling average . At the peak of Biden’s support, in mid-October, he was just 2 points ahead.
But there are two other races which could shape the senate. Republican Kelly Loeffler is running for the seat she was appointed to in a three-way battle: she is up against Republican Dan Collins and the Rev. Raphael Warnock, the Democrat. Warnock needs 50% for an outright win, or the race goes to a top-two run-off. Polls put him between 34 and 46 per cent, not enough for a knockout, while who between Collins and Loeffler is in second place is unclear.
Unusually, the other Senate seat is also in play, Republican David Perdue is running for anther term and may be in trouble with Democrat Jon Ossoff up 0.7% on average in a formerly safely Republican state. Both Republican incumbents have faced probes into possible insider trading – of which they were cleared – but realistically, both races are likely to become a January runoff which could determine who controls the Senate.
TEXAS – TRUMP WON IN 2016, REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
It is possible that exit polling from Texas will give some indication of the race there as it closes completely. But what happens next is unknown. Texas allowed mail-in votes to be counted before election day, so the Lone Star state is expecting to know those results, as well as in-person voting on election night. Mail-in ballots have until November 4 at 5 p.m. to arrive, so if the state is extremely close, there could be some waiting at the end. The way the results are announced could show a Biden, then Trump swing – with a boost at the end for Biden from the remaining mail-in ballots.
The Real Clear Politics polling average gives Trump a 1.2 point advantage in the historically red state. Two polls – an Emerson and a Quinnipiac survey – from October showed the candidates tied. For most of the race, however, Trump has been more solidly ahead, with a poll here and there showing the state going blue. Officials expect rapid counting and results. In 2016, the winner was declared just after midnight – Trump took the state by nine points. But a close race will slow the Associated Press, Reuters and TV networks’ ability to call the race.
In the Senate, John Cornyn is looking for a fourth term as a Republican. He is polling ahead of Trump, averaging 6.8% over M.J. Hegar, the Democratic challenger. If Cornyn lost, it would be a sign that Texas is officially a purple state.
OTHERS: Safe states including New York are likely to be called rapidly from 9pm to 10pm. Biden’s numbers will go up more than Trump’s at this point thanks to New York’s 29 electors, and Illinois’ 20. By shortly after 9PM both campaigns are likely to have more than 100 electoral college votes in their column.
Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah. Mountain time polls close in Idaho and Oregon.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Campaign: Gabrielle Giffords speaks for her husband Mark Kelly who is beating the Republican appointed senator, Martha McSally, in Arizona polls
ARIZONA – TRUMP WON IN 2016, REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
The state is anticipating the first precinct reporting numbers by about 10PM. Early and absentee ballots that were cast by the weekend will have been pre-counted and those results will be announced rapidly. Ballots cast on election day are also expected to come in Tuesday night – the state historically counts quickly. But last-minute absentee ballots could take several days to be tabulated with Thursday or Friday thought to be realistic.Biden has been several points ahead of Trump in Arizona polls for months, but a Trafalgar Group survey and a Rasmussen poll showed Trump 3 and 4 points ahead in late October, potentially indicating a narrowing of the race. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Biden 1 point ahead.
Also in play here is the Senate seat to which Martha McSally was appointed: that held by John McCain. Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut married to Gabrielle Giffords, the former Congresswoman left badly injured in a mass shooting, however is consistently ahead in the polls, by an average of 6.2%. Flipping McCain’s seat would be a massive blow to Republicans and suggest that Arizona is not just purple but trending blue.
ALABAMA: DEMOCRATS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Alabama says to expect all results on election night.
The ruby-red state’s Senate seat went to Doug Jones, a Democrat, in a special election in 2017. Republicans saw their vote collapse when already controversial candidate Roy Moore was hit by allegations of inappropriate conduct with teenage girls, which he denies. Jones won by 1.5% and now faces Tommy Tuberville, a former Auburn University coach. Limited polling has given the Republican an 11-point lead in October.
MONTANA – REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Not competitive for Trump and Biden but Democratic governor Steve Bullock is running for Senate against Republican incumbent Steve Daines. Polling has been relatively scarce in this tiny state with the three most recent polls all suggesting a close race, with Bullock either behind Daines by three points, tied, or ahead by one.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
WISCONSIN – TRUMP WON IN 2016
First results will start to be reported by now, with Washington County, which is mostly rural but has some Milwaukee suburbs, likely to be first to fully declare. The last results are expected from heavily-Democratic Milwaukee county by 7am. The Supreme Court prevented ballots arriving after November 2 being counted, meaning a complete count by Wednesday is realistic.
Trump took Wisconsin by just 0.8% in one of the 2016 upsets which cost Clinton the White House. Trump has held repeated rallies there – including in Kenosha on Monday night (right). In recent weeks the state has been one of the worst affected by coronavirus, but Trump has kept coming in the belief that he can repeat the 2016 surprise. His poll average there has been poor since summer, and it now puts Biden 6.6% up.
Polls close in California and Washington state and Pacific Time polls close in Oregon and Idaho.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
MINNESOTA – CLINTON WON IN 2016, DEMOCRATS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Expect some idea of the direction of Minnesota by now. Minnesota gave itself two weeks to start counting mail-in ballots, so results should come in November 3. Ballots in the state had to be returned by election day, which could also speed up the process.
Polls have never shown Trump in front of Biden, though the president has made a play for the blue state anyway, suggesting its demographics are similar to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which won him the White House in 2016. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Biden ahead by 4.3 points.
Democratic senator Tina Smith is seeking re-election with a challenge from Republican Jason Lewis. She has polled an average of five points clear of the challenger, who had to stop campaigning for much of last week because of emergency hernia surgery.
NEBRASKA – TRUMP WON SINGLE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE IN 2016
Nebraska started counting its mail-in ballots prior to election day and absentee ballots had to be returned by November 3, so the expectation is the results will be out quickly. Nebraska splits its electoral college votes so that each Congressional district has one. Only one is competitive – Nebraska-02 , representing Omaha and its suburbs. It went for Trump by just two points last time and what little polling there has been puts Biden safely ahead by three points – although Democrats believe it could be more. Trump campaigned in Omaha in the hope of keeping the vote because in a narrow fight, it could be crucial. Nebraska is usually relatively quick and all results are due by midnight so look for it to be known by now.
COLORADO: REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Colorado was already mostly mail-in ballots so is expecting to be able to handle the pandemic’s effects more easily than some states. Partial results are uploaded come roughly every 90 minutes, so the first should be safely processed by now.
Cory Gardner, the sitting Republican senator, is facing popular former Democratic governor John Hickenlooper. There have been only two polls in October, each putting Hickenlooper up eight or nine points. In a state which was Clinton by 4.9 points in 2016, Gardner has closely associated himself with Trump, which Democrats believe will seal his fate.
OTHERS: Calls will come for the safely Democratic west coast. By now Joe Biden is likely to have more than 200 electoral college votes secured, with California’s mammoth 55 key to his big advantage – Trump may be on as few as 104 by this point. Now it is entirely down to the competitive states to see what happens next. Trump’s path to re-election might have ended by now, or might be a nail-biter.
Polls close in Alaska (except for those in its Hawaii time zone) and Hawaii
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Reinforcements: Fear of losing Iowa and a Senate seat have sent Donald Trump and Mike Pence to Iowa to campaign with Joni Ernst
IOWA – TRUMP WON IN 2016, REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Counts relatively quickly and first results should be trickling through by now. Trump has overtaken Biden in recent polling in Iowa, after the Democrat had the lead through most of the fall. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Trump ahead by 1.4 points.
The last four polls had Trump winning in the state. The Des Moines Register survey gave Trump the biggest advantage, beating Biden by 7 – 48 per cent to 41 per cent. However, ballots postmarked by November 2 that arrive by November 9 can be counted too. This could give Biden a boost if the race is tight.
In the Senate Republican Joni Ernst is facing a formidable challenge from Theresa Greenfield. Four out of five polls have put Ernst ahead in October, but only one outside the margin of error, while another said the same for Greenfield.
Final polls close in Alaska – the voting is over everywhere
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
NEVADA – CLINTON WON IN 2016
Nevada mailed out ballots to every registered voter this year and those ballots just have to be postmarked by November 3 – meaning counting could go on for days. However, mail-in ballots can be counted before election day, so there could be some results reported on November 3. If it’s close, ballots being counted later will likely trend toward Biden.
Biden has been consistently ahead of Trump in Nevada polling, with Trump never ahead in a survey for the past year. The Real Clear Politics polling average has the Democrat winning the state by 3.6 points.
All over: Hillary Clinton was declared the loser by 2.29AM on November 9, 2016.
In 2016, this was when the Associated Press declared Trump had won and Hillary Clinton had lost.
MAINE – TRUMP WON ONE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE IN 2016, REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Like Nebraska, Maine splits its electoral college votes, with one for each Congressional district. Maine officials are allowing mail-in ballots to be counted prior to polls closing.
But Maine uses a ‘ranked preference’ system which means that if one candidate breaks 50 per cent, the result is likely before midnight. But if one does not, ballots go to Augusta for second preferences to be tabulated, which could take it far into Wednesday.
Trump pulled away one Electoral Vote from Hillary Clinton in 2016 thanks to Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, in the north of the state. However, all three polls conducted in October showed Biden ahead by around 3 points there.
Republican senator Susan Collins also appears to be deeply vulnerable to Democratic challenger Sara Gideon.
Collins, who Trump has not campaigned for, is down by between four and seven points in October’s polls and was overwhelmingly outfundraised. She had held her seat with a 37-point advantage in 2014 but Democrats believe she is the most vulnerable Republican senator of all.
All about Michigan: Joe Biden campaigned with Barack Obama in Detroit on Saturday. Democrats are determined not to see a repeat of the 2016 upset
MICHIGAN -TRUMP WIN IN 2016, DEMOCRATS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Michigan’s results will be slow to come in as mail-in ballot counting didn’t start until November 2. Michigan’s secretary of state estimated that it could take until Friday for all the ballots to be counted. The state could trend toward Biden later in the week, as Democrats are more prone to mail their ballots in.
Polling has had Biden ahead in Michigan, one of the three ‘blue wall’ states Trump won in 2016, for months – however, a late-breaking Trafalgar poll showed Trump up by 2 points. Overall, the Real Clear Politics polling average has Biden ahead by 5.1 points.
Democratic senator Gary Peters is also defending his seat against Republican John James. James, who is black, has been seen as a Republican rising star. But Peters’ polling average is ahead by 5.5 points, almost identical to Biden’s lead.
Hats all: No state has occupied each campaign more than Pennsylvania – but when the results of their efforts will be known is unknown
PENNSYLVANIA – TRUMP WON IN 2016
Mail-in ballots can’t begin being processed in the Keystone State until 7 a.m. on November 3 – meaning a final result could take days. Some Pennsylvania counties also plan to count in-person Election Day votes first – this could give Trump a perceived edge in the state, only for later ballots to move the count toward Biden.
Mail-in ballots postmarked on election day can arrive as late as November 6, further lengthening the process. The counting deadline is November 23 – a whole 20 days after the election – but officials have pointed to Friday as when most Pennsylvanians’ votes will be counted.
Pennsylvania polling had given Biden the advantage for months, but several late October surveys show Trump ahead in the state that clinched him his Electoral College win in 2016. The narrowed race has Biden up by 2.9 points in the Real Clear Politics polling average.
AND WHERE TO FIND THE CANDIDATES
TRUMP: The president will throw a party at the White House with several hundred supporters – who will all be tested for coronavirus, as the event will be held inside. The Trump campaign promoted an election night shindig at the president’s Washington, D.C., hotel, but Trump pointed a finger at D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser – who in ‘phase two’ is limiting gatherings to 50 people – as the party pooper. As the White House is federal property, Trump can do whatever he likes.
BIDEN: The Democratic nominee will be in Wilmington, Delaware with his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris on election night. The campaign has yet to release additional details on their plans. Before that, Biden will make one more trip to the Pennsylvania town where he was born, Scranton, and he’ll make a stop in Philadelphia, where his campaign offices were based. Harris will make a final election day stop too, in Detroit. As will Dr. Jill Biden, the former VP’s wife. She’ll be in Tampa and St. Petersburgh, Florida and then head to Wake County, North Carolina. Harris’ husband Doug Emhoff will be in Columbus, Ohio.
America has its say: Huge lines form at the crack of dawn outside polling stations across the country as Election Day voters add to 100 million ballots ALREADY cast
Americans have started casting their Election Day ballots in the bitterly contested presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden as polling places opened across the United States.
Long lines started forming well before dawn on Tuesday with polls opening in some eastern states as early as 6am EST.
Those casting their ballots on Election Day will add to the record number of Americans – nearly 100 million – that voted early either in person or by mail.
Some who voted early were motivated not only by concerns about waiting in lines on Election Day amid the COVID-19 pandemic but also by extraordinary levels of enthusiasm after a polarizing campaign.
While there were long lines in many places, in some states lines were shorter – potentially a reflection of the massive early vote.
In Pennsylvania, dozens of voters lined up bundled in jackets and hats on an unseasonably chilly morning. Some voters in suburban Ohio and Michigan braved the cold temperatures as they started lining up outside polling stations before the sun had even risen.
UNION, KENTUCKY: Hundreds of voters wait in line at a polling location at the Larry A Ryle High School in Union
PALM BEACH, FLORIDA: People stand in line to vote at the Morton and Barbara Mandel Recreation Center first thing Tuesday morning on the last day to cast their vote for either Trump or Biden
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY: Voters check in with election officials before receiving their ballots at Ballard High School
MARSHFIELD, MASS: Voters braved long lines and cold weather outside a polling station at Marshfield High School
HOUSTON, TEXAS: Lines outside this polling station in Houston Texas stretched around the block after opening
In McConnellsburg, Pennsylvania, Martin Seylar, a 45-year-old welder who had just finished his shift, said of Trump, his preferred candidate: ‘He’s a bit of a jerk, and I appreciate that.
‘He doesn’t get everything that he says done, but the way I see it is he’s trying, versus where everybody else blows smoke at us.’
In Detroit, Republican voter Nick Edwards, 26, cast a ballot for Biden but voted for Republican candidates for Congress.
‘Honestly, decency in the White House,’ Edwards said when asked about his main concern. ‘When someone leads the party, they need to hold those values, as well. I don’t think Trump encompasses that.’
Biden, the Democratic former vice president who has spent a half century in public life, has held a strong and consistent lead in national opinion polls over the Republican president. But Trump is close enough in several election battleground states that he could piece together the 270 state-by-state Electoral College votes needed to win the election.
The most closely watched results will start to trickle in after 7pm EST when polls close in states such as Georgia.
Definitive national results, however, could take days if the contest is tight.
Results in Florida, where mail-in ballots can be counted before Election Day, are expected to begin to come in relatively quickly on Tuesday night.
But Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will not begin counting the vast majority of mail ballots until Election Day, raising the possibility of a prolonged vote count that could stretch for several days.
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA: Voters check in at First Ward Elementary School in Charlotte, North Carolina shortly after the polls opened on Election Day
LOS ANGELES: People wait in line for the vote center to open at the Pantages Theatre on the Hollywood Walk of Fame to cast their ballots
PORTLAND, MAINE: People wait in line to vote in Maine first thing Tuesday morning